Quantum Computing

How close are we to a useful quantum computer?

Live Updated 2026-05-28

Distance to goal

The single most intuitive view — current position against the end goal, on a log scale.

Logical qubits

Metric detail

1101001k10k100k1M

now

Harvard / QuEra

goal

≈1,000,000

~4.3 orders of magnitude to go

Headline indicators

Physical qubits HW

1,180

Atom Computing · 2025-10

goal ≈1,000,000

Logical qubits HW

Harvard / QuEra · 2024-12

goal ≈1,000,000

Gate fidelity HW

99.9%

Oxford Ionics · 2025-03

goal 99.99%

Investment ECO

$42B

public + private, cumulative · 2025-12

trend indicator — no fixed goal

Milestone timeline

Clear-cut events: crossed or not crossed.

3 achieved 1 in progress 2 locked

Quantum advantage demonstrated

2019-10

Google — Sycamore

A task done in minutes that would take a classical supercomputer far longer. Narrow, but a real first.

Paper

Below the error-correction threshold

2023-02

Google — surface code

Adding more physical qubits started to lower the logical error rate — the precondition for scaling.

Paper

Logical qubits beat physical error rate

2024-12

Harvard / QuEra — 48 logical

Encoded qubits outperformed their underlying physical qubits at scale for the first time.

Paper

Useful algorithm beats classical

~ 2026–2028

in active pursuit

A commercially or scientifically useful computation no classical machine can match. Several groups racing.

Paper

1,000 logical qubits

~ ~2029+

IBM / Google roadmaps

The scale at which early fault-tolerant applications (chemistry, materials) become plausible.

Paper

Cryptographically relevant machine

~ unknown

≈1M logical qubits

Able to break RSA-2048. Estimates range widely — the true finish line for the “distance to goal” view.

Paper

Every figure links to a primary source. We publish no invented scores. Tracker numbers are neutral; analysis is labelled separately.