Quantum supremacy (Sycamore)
2019-1053-qubit chip did in minutes a task framed as intractable for classical supercomputers.
How close are we to a useful quantum computer?
The single most intuitive view — current position against the end goal, on a log scale.
Standings by actor, within this field only.
Clear-cut events: crossed or not crossed.
53-qubit chip did in minutes a task framed as intractable for classical supercomputers.
Atom Computing (1,180) and IBM Condor (1,121) both crossed 1,000 physical qubits.
First programmable logical processor running algorithms on dozens of error-corrected qubits.
Errors fell as the code grew — the long-sought sign that scaling can work.
First two-qubit gate fidelity past 99.99% — comfortable headroom over the EC threshold.
Fault-tolerant architecture running algorithms on up to 96 logical qubits.
IBM is spinning off Anderon, a $2B (≈$1B CHIPS Act + $1B IBM) 300mm superconducting-qubit wafer fab in Albany, NY — open to other quantum vendors as a neutral 'TSMC for quantum.'
Quantinuum launched Helios: 98 trapped-ion (barium-137) physical qubits with 99.92% two-qubit-gate fidelity and all-to-all (QCCD) connectivity, running up to 48 error-corrected logical qubits — its most accurate commercial system.
Peer-reviewed in Nature: error correction (carbon & tesseract codes) cut logical error rates up to 800x below the underlying physical qubits on Quantinuum trapped-ion hardware - the largest physical-to-logical gap yet independently validated, with repeated mid-circuit correction across up to 12 logical qubits.
Caltech trapped 6,100 cesium atoms in optical tweezers — roughly 10× prior arrays — holding superposition ~13 s with 99.98% single-qubit accuracy and shuttling atoms without decohering, a key enabler for error correction. Published in Nature.
IBM reported three separate quantum-advantage demonstrations paired with methods for trusting results that cannot be classically checked: with the University of Chicago, a ~15-minute computation certified via doped Clifford sampling and spacetime codes; with Qedma (plus RIKEN and BlueQubit), validated error mitigation; with Algorithmiq, validation of the computation process rather than the answer. A companion run encoded 70 logical qubits with logical error rates about 10x below the physical ones. Recorded as a claim, not a settled result: the demonstrations are company-led and the field is still pressure-testing both the advantage and the verification.
IonQ sold its first 6th-gen, chip-based 256-qubit system (to the University of Cambridge) and posted record Q1 revenue of $64.7M (+755% YoY); its roadmap targets 10,000 networked qubits.
QuEra, Harvard and MIT showed qLDPC codes encoding 1,156 logical qubits into 2,304 physical (≈2:1, >50% rate), simulated into the "teraquop" regime (~1 error per trillion ops) — versus the hundreds-to-one ratio typical today.
Atom Computing demonstrated sustained multi-round quantum error correction with a toric code on neutral atoms — logical error rates falling as the system scales up (sub-threshold), a first for the neutral-atom platform.
Rigetti launched its 84-qubit Ankaa-3 superconducting system with a 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity — a major reliability jump from a redesigned qubit layout and Alternating-Bias Assisted Annealing, available on Rigetti's cloud and later AWS Braket / Azure.
Quantinuum priced an upsized IPO at $60/share, raising $1.68B on Nasdaq (QNT) at a ~$15.7B market value — the quantum industry's first mega-IPO. Honeywell retains ~48% voting power.
A 20-qubit IQM Radiance system ("Pathfinder") went live at Oak Ridge National Laboratory on 16 Jun 2026 — Finnish superconducting maker IQM's first US installation and the first commercially-procured quantum computer at the lab. It is co-located with Frontier, the world's most powerful open-science supercomputer, for HPC–quantum integration in the National Center for Computational Sciences test bed. The deployment comes ahead of IQM's planned Nasdaq listing via a business combination with Real Asset Acquisition Corp. (RAAQ).
Pasqal inaugurated SOL, a 140-qubit neutral-atom processor, at CINECA in Bologna — Italy's first neutral-atom quantum computer, engineered for tight integration with the Leonardo pre-exascale supercomputer (Top500 #10). Procured by the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking with Italy's research ministry, it is Pasqal's third EuroHPC-linked system after France and Germany — extending Europe's HPC–quantum integration push.
President Trump signed two executive orders (22 Jun 2026). The first launches QC-ADDS (Quantum Computer for Application Development and Discovery Science) — a national effort to field a quantum computer powerful enough for scientific discovery at a DOE facility, which officials believe achievable by ~2028 — and refreshes the National Quantum Strategy. The second mandates migrating critical-infrastructure cryptography to post-quantum standards by 2030–2031. A major federal commitment placing quantum at the center of US technology strategy.
France's HPC agency GENCI signed a public procurement (at VivaTech 2026) for an 18-cat-qubit Alice & Bob system — the world's first formal state acquisition of error-biased cat-qubit hardware, funded via France 2030's HQI (Hybrid HPC-Quantum) initiative. It will be installed at the CEA's TGCC center (Bruyères-le-Châtel) and hybridized with the Joliot-Curie supercomputer, accessible to researchers in 2027 — billed as the first early fault-tolerant QC (eFTQC) permanently sited in a European supercomputing center.
PsiQuantum broke ground at Moreton Bay, near Brisbane, on what it bills as the world's first utility-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer — a silicon-photonic machine aiming at ~1M physical qubits. Backed by A$940M (~US$620M) in equity, grants and loans from the Australian and Queensland governments (plus a US$100M CHIPS Act letter of intent), the company targets an operational site by end-2027.
Ottawa committed CAD $195M (~USD $140M) through the Strategic Response Fund to Xanadu's Project OPTIMISM, anchoring a CAD $893M plan to build "Inception" — a 158,000 sq-ft advanced photonics R&D and manufacturing facility in Toronto for the components of fault-tolerant photonic quantum computers. It is the largest government commitment to quantum manufacturing in Canadian history. The federal share is under a fifth of the total, the rest is not yet accounted for publicly, and the facility does not exist: this funds a supply chain, not a machine.
IBM completed its acquisition of HRL Laboratories on 26 Aug 2026, adding silicon-spin qubits to a roadmap built entirely on superconducting transmons, along with HRL's quantum sensing, cryogenics, control electronics and packaging work. Boeing and General Motors, HRL's former owners, stay on as partners. Terms were not disclosed. Silicon spin qubits are the modality that could ride existing semiconductor fabs, which is why IBM ties it to Anderon, its quantum wafer foundry — but this buys a research program, not a working machine: IBM's shipping systems remain superconducting.
Millions of physical / thousands of logical qubits needed to break RSA-2048 — not yet in sight.
Every figure links to a primary source. We publish no invented scores. Tracker numbers are neutral; analysis is labelled separately.