Is SpaceX's lead in reusability unassailable?
165 launches and a 32-flight booster put SpaceX years ahead, but Blue Origin's New Glenn reuse and Rocket Lab's Neutron are finally real. Our read on how durable the lead is. (Our opinion, not investment advice.)
By the numbers, SpaceX's lead looks overwhelming: 165 orbital launches in 2025, more than the rest of the world combined, and a single booster flown 32 times. That is not just a head start; it is a flywheel, where each flight funds the next and compounds operational experience that rivals cannot buy.
Our read is that the lead is durable but no longer uncontested. For years Falcon was the only reusable orbital rocket flying; in 2026 that stopped being true. Blue Origin reflew a New Glenn booster, and Rocket Lab's reusable Neutron is moving from slideware to hardware. Neither is close to SpaceX's cadence, but a one-horse race becoming a three-horse race changes the field's risk profile — pricing power, customer leverage and the pace of the next cost step all shift when there is a credible second source.
The wild card is Starship. If it reaches rapid, full reusability, SpaceX's lead widens into a different league; if it slips, the gap to a maturing New Glenn narrows. We watch cadence, reflights and cost per kilogram precisely because they reveal which of those worlds we are heading toward, ahead of the narratives.
This is our interpretation of the public data, not investment advice.